On Monday, 1st of February, 2020, the Indian Tobacco Company (ITC) stock price touched an intraday as well as a new low of Rs. 205 on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), on account of increase in National Calamity Contingent Duty (NCCD) as announced in the Union Budget 2020-2021 and falling 6.33% as against the previous close of Rs. 218.85. The fall in price was in line with the 'Cigarettes/Tobacco' sector that has fallen by 4.48% on the BSE today. Volume-wise, 19.6 lakhs and 483.8 lakhs shares were changing hands on BSE and National Stock Exchange (NSE) counters, both above the 5,10 and 30-day average volume.
National Calamity Contingent Duty (NCCD) increase in 202 is to Rs 44.5 paisa/stick for all segments which will result in a 14% increase in total tax per stick and in turn 5% downgrade to our earnings' estimate (EPS estimates) the India Infoline (IIFL) Securities said in its report.
During Monday's trade, ITC lost its place in the list of the country's 10 most-valued companies, in terms of market capitalisation, as the company overall lost Rs. 29,000 crores in m-cap value over the last two trading sessions. The stock has fallen over 10.56% in the last two sessions.
The stock price of the company headquartered in Kolkata, West Bengal, has fallen 9.7% in one week, 11.13% in one month and 24.5% in a year. Currently, ITC stock is trading lower than its 5, 20, 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages. Market depth data on BSE suggested 58% sellers offering as against 42% buyers bidding.
Post the budget announcement, most of the brokerages gave a thumbs down to the stock by lowering their price estimates.
Investec brokerage house said it expected ITC to raise prices by over 6-7% after the rise in excise for cigarettes & tobacco products and set the target at Rs. 235 per share.
Furthermore, JP Morgan, on the other hand, has lowered the Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) forecast for the cigarette maker to 5% in Fiscal Year 21, with the target price at Rs. 235 per share. Price hike of 12% will lead to a volume decline of 7% for ITC after the excise hike, said Credit Suisse and cut its target price to Rs. 225 per share.
Author: Dyuti Pandya
