Washington — As votes from the 2026 midterm elections are still being counted, the historical record offers context for what is at stake. Since 1946, the president's party has lost House seats in 18 of 20 midterm elections, shedding an average of roughly 26 seats, and the House has changed hands in seven of them. This report reviews the main modern midterms, from Bill Clinton's in 1994 to Joe Biden's in 2022, and where the 2026 count stands.
The tendency of voters to check the president's party at the midpoint of a term is among the most consistent features of American politics. Britannica's tally of the 22 midterms from 1934 through 2018 puts the average loss for the White House party at about 28 House seats and four Senate seats.
The only modern exceptions to House losses were Bill Clinton's Democrats in 1998 and George W. Bush's Republicans in 2002. Among midterms in which the president's last approval rating was below 50 percent, the president's party lost about 35 House seats on average, according to one analysis. Tallies for individual elections differ by a seat or two between sources, depending on how special elections and party switches are counted, so the figures below are approximate.
The Modern Midterms
| Year | President | House change | Senate change | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1994 | Bill Clinton (D) | about −54 | −8 | Republicans win both chambers |
| 2006 | George W. Bush (R) | about −30 | −6 | Democrats win both chambers |
| 2010 | Barack Obama (D) | about −63 or −64 | −6 | Republicans win the House, Democrats keep the Senate |
| 2018 | Donald Trump (R) | about −41 | +2 | Democrats win the House, Republicans keep the Senate |
| 2022 | Joe Biden (D) | −9 | +1 | Republicans narrowly win the House, Democrats keep the Senate |
1994. Clinton's first midterm became known as the "Republican Revolution." Republicans gained 54 House seats and eight Senate seats, taking control of both houses for the first time since 1953.
2006. Voter discontent over the Iraq War cost Bush's party 30 House seats and six Senate seats, handing Democrats control of both chambers.
2010. In Obama's first midterm, Republicans gained about 63 seats in a Tea Party-fuelled wave, the largest midterm loss in decades, Obama himself called it a "shellacking."
2018. In Trump's first midterm, Democrats gained about 41 House seats and took the chamber, while Republicans picked up two Senate seats on a favourable map.
2022. Biden's Democrats lost only nine House seats, the smallest loss for a president's party in 20 years, and kept the Senate, with the Supreme Court's abortion ruling cited as a factor driving Democratic turnout.
Clinton's party gained a handful of House seats in 1998, as Republicans pressed his impeachment, and Bush's party gained about eight in 2002, in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks. Analysts of the 2026 cycle have argued that no comparable extraordinary circumstances exist this year.
Where 2026 Stands
Republicans entered Election Day with 218 House seats to Democrats' 214, with one independent who generally supports the Republican leadership and two vacancies, and with 53 Senate seats to Democrats' 47 including independents who caucus with them.
Democrats need a net gain of three seats in the House and four in the Senate to take control. Counting was still under way early on November 4, and the sources reviewed for this report do not show either chamber's control being called. Early results showed Democrats flipping a Senate seat in North Carolina, with Roy Cooper winning, and holding seats in Georgia and New Hampshire, while Republicans held Florida. Democrats also led in several competitive House races.
Pre-election forecasts had favoured Democrats in the House, with estimates ranging from a narrow Republican majority to a comfortable Democratic one.
Midterms occur because House members serve two-year terms while the president serves four, so every House seat and roughly a third of Senate seats come up midway through a presidential term. Control of the House carries specific constitutional powers. The Constitution gives the House the sole power of impeachment and the origination of revenue bills, and House committee chairs control subpoenas and oversight investigations. The Senate holds the power to confirm judges and cabinet officers and to ratify treaties.
Divided government, with one party holding the White House and the other a chamber of Congress, therefore constrains a president's legislative agenda and opens the administration to investigation, which is why the stakes of each midterm are measured in committee control as much as in seat counts. The rules for administering the vote, from early voting to counting, are set largely by the states.
