Washington, November 2, 2026 — With Americans set to vote on Tuesday, November 3, in midterm elections that will determine control of Congress, major forecasting models and prediction markets project that Democrats are strongly favoured to win the House of Representatives, with the Senate more closely contested. One model cited by The Hindu's data team suggests Democrats could win about 230 of the 435 House seats and 18 of the 35 Senate seats being contested. These are projections, not results: no votes had been counted at the time of this report.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate's 100 seats are being contested, including special elections in Florida and Ohio to fill the seats vacated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance. Of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot, Republicans hold 22 and Democrats hold 13.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority and, in the House, 218 seats to the Democrats' 214, with one independent sitting with Republicans and two seats vacant. Democrats need to gain three seats in the House and four in the Senate to take control of each chamber. A 50-50 Senate split would leave Republicans in control, because Vice President Vance can cast tie-breaking votes. Thirty-six governorships are also on the ballot.
The Forecasts
The model cited by The Hindu points to a Democratic House majority of about 230 seats and 18 of the 35 contested Senate seats. Because Democrats hold 34 Senate seats that are not up for election this year, winning 18 contested seats would give them 52 seats in total. A separate forecasting model published on November 1 gave Democrats an 88 percent chance of controlling the House, with a median of 230 seats (217 to 246 in 80 percent of simulations), and a 76 percent chance of controlling the Senate, with a median of 52 seats.
Other forecasters, using different methods, reached similar conclusions with varying degrees of confidence:
- Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats an 84 percent chance of winning the House, projecting 241 seats, and a 64 percent chance of winning the Senate, projecting 52 seats.
- Kalshi, a prediction market, priced Democratic House control at 93.3 percent and Democratic Senate control at 71 percent as of November 1.
- FiftyPlusOne, in a forecast released in August, gave Democrats an 85 percent chance in the House with a median of 230 seats, and a 55 percent chance in the Senate.
- A Harvard-based model, ElectIt, projected a Democratic two-party House vote of 54.1 percent and a median of 239 House seats and 52 Senate seats.
- Sabato's Crystal Ball rated 225 House seats as safe, likely or leaning Democratic as of October 27, above the 218 needed for a majority.
Democrats' chances in the Senate depend on flipping Republican-held seats in states that backed Trump in 2024. Of the Senate races Decision Desk HQ rates as toss-ups, three are in places Trump won by double digits: Texas, Iowa and Ohio. Republicans are eyeing a potential pickup in Michigan, which they hope to use to offset losses elsewhere.
Why the Forecasts Favour Democrats
The forecasts reflect a combination of structural factors. Presidents' parties have historically lost seats in midterm elections. A YouGov poll conducted October 23 to 26 put President Donald Trump's approval among registered voters at 39 percent and disapproval at 58 percent, a net rating of minus 19. Reporting on the campaign has pointed to public anger over the cost of living and the war with Iran as additional headwinds for Republicans. A record 47.9 million Americans had voted early by October 30, with registered Democrats outpacing Republicans among early voters in key battleground states.
The forecasts carry meaningful uncertainty, and forecasters have emphasised that outcomes at the edges of their ranges remain plausible. One model's runs, for example, assumed a national polling error of 1.8 points in Republicans' favour in its central scenario, and its own documentation notes it has not been historically calibrated. The Harvard model's scenarios range from a Democratic House tally of about 213 seats, in a scenario of historic polling error favouring Republicans, to about 275 seats in a strong Democratic scenario.
Mid-decade Republican redistricting is also a factor, one analyst cited by Al Jazeera estimated that redistricting has given Republicans an advantage in nine additional districts, even as he predicted Democrats could gain about 15 seats overall, with roughly 35 House races likely to decide the majority. A legal dispute in Alaska also threatens to delay the outcome of that state's Senate race, raising the possibility that final control of the chamber may not be known on election night.
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